One of Trump’s greatest assets according to many of his supporters in the past, including myself, is that he ran on an anti-war platform leading up to the 2016 election. And in many ways he delivered. He did not start any new wars, his efforts to build bridges with a power like Russia prevented the beginning of the Ukrainian war, at least in his term, and he even managed to broker peace deals between Israel and some other Middle Eastern powers.
However, his war record was not clean. He did not withdraw from Afghanistan in his term, though America did draw down, and the United States did not stop its targeted drone attacks and many other aspects of American foreign policy aggression across the world. How much this can be blamed on Trump’s personal views and actions and the limited ability of one man to turn around the US war machine will be the debates of historians for some time to come.
But what about this time around? Will Trump succeed in stopping World War 3? Well, for one, Trump has promised to end the war in Ukraine. And it is clear that he never wanted that war in the first place. But does this really mean much anymore? Anyone watching the American political process, or really that of any democracy, will note that there are massive policy changes between different presidential terms, because of the partisan nature of American politics, so one president might not honour the deal of the last.
And despite all these changes, the gravity is still driven towards the pro-war factions on any given day. So, even if Trump is successfully elected, and successfully works out a deal with Putin, will this really put an end to the threat of an escalating war? Would a leader like Putin even trust a nation like America which has an old habit of breaking peace deals, whether it be with native American tribes in the 19th century, or with the Iran nuclear deal during Trump’s presidency? Is a nation like the United States even trustworthy?
Why would Putin not just continue winning, rather than risk a ceasefire that would allow Ukraine time to rearm and reequip and gear up for a future conflict? So, even with Trump’s statements about wanting to end the war in Ukraine, there is no guarantee that this will happen, or even stick if he even achieves this.
But there is a more concerning issue. Trump has been very hawkish when it comes to supporting Israel. There is no such thing as an American presidential candidate who does not publicly come out in support of Israel. This is due to the inordinate influence that the Israel lobby has on American politics, through leaders like Netanyahu, pro-Israeli lobby groups and the Christian pro-Israel movement in America. During his presidency, Trump enacted some very pro-Israel policies, including recognising Jerusalem as the capital, which some say is part of what has precipitated this escalation of the Gaza conflict. But his views on the war in Gaza appear to cut both ways,
“Trump, who routinely touts his support of Israel more broadly, has reportedly said he supports Israel in its continued “war on terror” after the October 7 attack by Hamas. And like members of the Israeli government, he has cast doubt on the continued viability of a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict that has been a cornerstone of US policy for decades.
At times, however, he has also been critical of the Israeli campaign. He’s said Israel should “get it over with … get back to peace and stop killing people.” But he’s also emphasized they “have to have a victory” and implied that what’s really the issue is that Israel is “absolutely losing the PR war” and “losing its power” in Congress. He has also criticized Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, with whom his relations have cooled since Netanyahu’s acknowledgment of Joe Biden’s 2020 electoral win.” [i]
Trump has appeared to support Israel’s efforts to fully conquer Gaza, and at the same time, he has come out and said that war is bad for business.
What is interesting though is that Trump has apparently given Netanyahu a deadline to accomplish his victory,
“Former US president Donald Trump has told Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that he wants Israel to wrap up the war in Gaza by the time he returns to office if he wins the election, two sources familiar with the matter revealed to The Times of Israel this week.
The message was first conveyed when the Republican presidential nominee hosted the Israeli premier at his Florida Mar-a-Lago resort in July, according to a former Trump administration official and an Israeli official.
While Trump has publicly confirmed having told Netanyahu that he wants Israel to win the war quickly, the sources speaking to The Times of Israel are the first to reveal that a timeline was attached to that request.” [ii]
This may be an indication that Trump is going to do what he can to bring this war to a quick conclusion. Remember, most of the arms that Israel are using in this war come from the United States through aid packages. Without the United States taking an active role in protecting Israel, Netanyahu could not be doing what he is now in the process of doing. So Israel needs the United States to fight and have any hope of winning this war.
But on the ground in Israel, many people expect the election of a Trump presidency to work in their favour, “Israel’s settlers are closely watching the U.S. election, a leader of the community said, expressing confidence that if Donald Trump wins he will lift what they see as illegitimate sanctions imposed on some of them for attacks on Palestinians.”[iii] The reason they feel this way is that Trump has in the past strongly supported Israeli policies that even Biden and other US presidents have not,
“If Trump takes the election, there will be no sanctions,” he told Reuters in an interview. “If Trump loses the election, we will in the state of Israel … have a problem with sanctions that the government over here has to deal with.”
Asked about the sanctions, a spokesperson for Netanyahu’s office declined to comment, while senior Trump campaign advisor Brian Hughes said “only President Trump will restore peace and stability in the Middle East for all people”.
Most countries deem Jewish settlements built on land Israel captured in the 1967 Middle East war illegal under international law and say their expansion blocks the only path to lasting peace – a viable Palestinian state alongside a secure Israel.
In 2019, the then-Trump administration abandoned the long-held U.S. position that the settlements are illegal before it was restored by President Joe Biden.”[iv]
So Trump is a mixed bag on the Israel issue. At one moment he seems to be pushing for peace, at another moment he appears to be willing to give them even more than other presidents in the past.
Then there is the Christian pro-Israel movement that is strongly behind Trump. Many in this cohort are all for Israel doing whatever it takes to gain not just Gaza, but the ancient boundaries promised to Abraham in Genesis. They will be putting pressure on Trump to not only allow Israel to continue but telling him that is the only way that the United States can be blessed. Look at how some evangelicals see Trump,
“Donald Trump’s fans and critics alike have compared him to some of history’s most famous rulers: Cyrus the Great, Adolf Hitler, King David, and more.
But on the eve of the election, a celebrity pastor named Jonathan Cahn wants his evangelical followers to think of the Republican candidate as a present-day manifestation of a far more obscure leader: the biblical king Jehu, who vanquished the morally corrupt house of Ahab to become the 10th ruler of the Kingdom of Israel.
“President Trump, you were born into the world to be a trumpet of God, a vessel of the Lord in the hands of God. God called you to walk according to the template; He called you according to the template of Jehu, the warrior king,” Cahn told the hundreds of Christian leaders who gathered last week for the National Faith Summit outside Atlanta.”[v]
It must be said that this article notes that these leaders see Trump as someone who is going to clean the corruption out of the American deep state swamp. But can you imagine such leaders not wanting to put pressure on Trump to give Israel everything it needs, including US troops on the ground? The speaker of the house Mike Johnson, a strong evangelical Christian, has famously noted that it is a biblical admonition for the United States to stand with Israel[vi] and he has continually stated, “We are going to stand like a rock with our friend and our ally Israel.”[vii] This view is the norm amongst the American conservative movement. I do not see why people who have such a biblical view and the ear of the president would not use that influence to encourage Trump to do whatever it takes to defend and expand Israel. After all, it is how America continues to be blessed right?
So, with all of this having been said, I do not think we can be confident that Trump is capable of stopping World War 3 from escalating. While the man appears personally predisposed against war, he is only one man, and a large segment of his base have an ideological reason to support Israel in any action it takes in the Middle East, which is one of the current fronts in our current escalating world war. I would like to think that Trump can bring peace to the Middle East, and beyond, he appeared to be on that trajectory during his last term as president. But things have changed markedly since then. It is not a given that he can achieve this anymore.
References
i) Nicole Narea, 2024, https://www.vox.com/politics/353037/trump-gaza-israel-protests-biden-election-2024
ii) JACOB MAGID, 2024, https://www.timesofisrael.com/trump-told-netanyahu-he-wants-gaza-war-over-by-time-he-enters-office-sources/
iii) Jonathan Saul, 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israels-settlers-see-sanctions-relief-if-trump-wins-us-election-2024-10-31/
iv) Ibid.
v) ASAF ELIA-SHALEV, 2024, https://www.timesofisrael.com/why-trump-is-being-compared-to-the-obscure-biblical-king-jehu-on-the-christian-right/
vi) Littlefield, 2024, https://younggospelminister.blogspot.com/2024/04/theology-is-not-neutral.html
vii) Marc Rod, 2023, https://jewishinsider.com/2023/10/israel-house-speaker-mike-johnson-republican-jewish-coalition-conference/
