Image

Hey Pollsters, Maybe It’s Time for a Career Change

It’s everyone’s nightmare scenario: an electoral stalemate; two men all but claiming the presidency; and a likely legal battle that may extend into December.

It’s everyone’s nightmare scenario: an electoral stalemate; two men all but claiming the presidency; and a likely legal battle that may extend into December.

So much is yet uncertain as the final ballots are counted, and as some jurisdictions prepare to pause counting while the courts have their say. Through the frustrating murkiness, however, there are already a number of major headline stories to take out of the 2020 US election. One of the biggest is surely the abject failure of the polling industry. Again.

“The polling industry is a wreck, and should be blown up,” writes Politico.

“To all the pollsters out there: you have no idea what you’re doing,” declared Republican Senator Lindsay Graham.

Graham fended off South Carolina challenger Jamie Harrison, who in some polls edged in front of Graham and spent US$109m on the race that polls told him he could win. Instead, Harrison ended up losing by 11 points.

Graham wasn’t the only Republican Senator to enjoy an unforeseen landslide. There wasn’t a single major poll that tipped Susan Collins to win a Senate seat in Maine. Her Democrat challenger Sarah Gideon raised $70m for the upset, but lost the race by 9 points.

By most measures, the Democrats were heavy favourites to flip the Senate. Instead, Republicans are now better placed to lead the Senate than before Tuesday’s race.

The Democrat party was likewise expected to pick up anywhere from five to 15 seats in the House. In fact, the Republicans outperformed them there too, stealing a handful of seats to put themselves in an extremely powerful minority, regardless of the eventual White House result.

The award-winning FiveThirtyEight is regarded by many as the best authority on American political contests because of its polling aggregation methods. Going into Tuesday, FiveThirtyEight gave the Democrats a 72 percent chance of sweeping both houses of Congress and the presidency in a great “blue wave”. They tipped Joe Biden as the 90 percent favourite. How could they get it so wrong?

The site was just as dismal on state races. They gave Trump only the narrowest of leads in both Texas and Ohio, states that Trump won by a convincing 6 and 8 percentage points respectively. Biden was the clear favourite in Florida, but lost the perennial swing state by 3.5 points. Wisconsin—which now faces a recount after a razor-thin count—was supposed to be a thumping Biden win: 95 percent likely, according to FiveThirtyEight. A full 17 points according to the Washington Post.

I have a confession to make. In the weeks leading up to the election, there were only two polling outlets that I paid any attention to: Rasmussen and Trafalgar. I had a straightforward reason for this. While most pollsters missed Trump’s 2016 victory, they were impressively close in their predictions.

The reason for this is that they were aware of the “shy Trump voter” phenomenon, and had devised methods to account for this. Trafalgar accurately foresaw a 2016 Trump win in the swing states of Pennsylvania, Florida and Michigan. Rasmussen came to within one point of predicting the popular vote, performing better than any other outlet according to RealClearPolitics.

And sure enough, both predicted a neck-and-neck race this year. Rasmussen correctly picked up on a growing Black and Latino vote for Trump, and Presidential approval ratings in the high 40s and low 50s during the final weeks of the campaign. Trafalgar tipped Trump to win the White House with an electoral college total in the high 270s to low 280s.

Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight fame dismissed both polling outlets as “crazy”—though he’s probably eating his words now.

As early as 2015, The New York Times drew attention to what they called a “crisis” in the polling industry. They cited several reasons; among them the growth of cellphones, a decline in the willingness of people to answer surveys, and the difficulty of identifying likely voters as opposed to registered voters.

As recently highlighted by Michael Cook, when The New York Times wildly missed the Trump victory in 2016, they searched their hearts and promised to “report America and the world honestly, without fear or favor, striving always to understand and reflect all political perspectives and life experiences in the stories that we bring to you.” Of course, that didn’t last too long: all 15 of their opinion columnists decried Trump in unison over the weekend.

While the Times was doubtless correct about the social challenges facing pollsters, they missed the bigger picture. Just like the polling outlets, they were blinkered—only able to see what they wanted to see, and dismissing all else. Cognitive bias is a powerful phenomenon, and we’re all subject to it.

For four years, the liberal coastal elites—whether in statistics or journalism—have told themselves the same, tired “Orange Man Bad” story, unable to fathom that other Americans felt differently and had long ago tuned out.

As long as they are living in their own world, they will miss what half the country really thinks. And that’s to everyone’s detriment.

This article was originally published by Mercatornet.

Special Request:

For nearly eight years, we've highlighted issues ignored by mainstream media and resisted globalist ideologies eroding Western civilization. We've done this joyfully, without paywalls, despite personal costs to our team. Your support has kept us going, but operating costs exceed donations, forcing us to use ads. We’d love to ditch them, so we’re asking for your help. If you value our work, please consider supporting us via Stripe or PayPal. Every bit helps us keep fighting for our kids’ future. Thank you!

What's New?

Use the blue arrows at the bottom to scroll through the latest.
20 Reasons to Believe the Resurrection

20 Reasons to Believe the Resurrection

"The evidence surrounding the resurrection demonstrates that it is not a mere legend but an event grounded in real history."
By
by Staff WriterApr 20, 2025
The Resurrection

The Resurrection

"The resurrection is Christianity. It is the core of our faith. Hence, Resurrection Sunday."
By
by Matthew LittlefieldApr 20, 2025
Is Taxation Theft or the Price We Pay for Civilization?

Is Taxation Theft or the Price We Pay for Civilization?

"Surely, there should be a seriously low cap on how much money a government can legally take from the public before being forced to concede they’re simply not able to do the job they’ve been tasked with."
By
by Ben DavisApr 19, 2025
White House Launches New Website Exposing COVID Response: Fauci, Lockdowns, Mandates, and Lab Leak Theory

White House Launches New Website Exposing COVID Response: Fauci, Lockdowns, Mandates, and Lab Leak Theory

“Public health officials often mislead the American people through conflicting messaging, knee-jerk reactions, and a lack of transparency," the White House has said.
By
by Staff WriterApr 19, 2025
‘Blessed Ramadan’ and ‘Happy Easter from the Dogs’? PM Accused of Snubbing Christian Australians

‘Blessed Ramadan’ and ‘Happy Easter from the Dogs’? PM Accused of Snubbing Christian Australians

"Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is facing backlash after he posted a social media message wishing Australians a 'Happy Easter weekend from Toto and Toby,' his dogs."
By
by Staff WriterApr 18, 2025
The Hope of Israel

The Hope of Israel

"Jesus was murdered by corrupt men so that you and I could be saved, so that the hope of Israel could be fulfilled."
By
by Matthew LittlefieldApr 18, 2025
UK Supreme Court Affirms Sex Is Assigned by Biology, Not Bigotry

UK Supreme Court Affirms Sex Is Assigned by Biology, Not Bigotry

"Despite the court ruling in favour of protecting female-only spaces, the Supreme Court still backs the legal 'right' for a man to identify as a woman, and punish anyone who doesn’t refer to him as one."
By
by Rod LampardApr 17, 2025
Kidnapped Pastor Rescued After Deadly Shootout

Kidnapped Pastor Rescued After Deadly Shootout

"Sullivan was delivering a sermon when six armed men entered the building and took him captive in front of his wife and children."
By
by Staff WriterApr 17, 2025

Image

Support

If you value our work and would like to support us, you can do so by visiting our support page. Can’t find what you’re looking for? Visit our search page.

Copyright © 2025, Caldron Pool

Permissions

Everything published at Caldron Pool is protected by copyright and cannot be used and/or duplicated without prior written permission. Links and excerpts with full attribution are permitted. Published articles represent the opinions of the author and may not reflect the views of all contributors at Caldron Pool.

Caldron Pool does not condone the use of violence, threats, or intimidation for political or religious purposes. We strongly advocate for peaceful, respectful, and free communication and open debate without fear of reprisal or punishment.