A Christian persecution monitoring organisation has warned that the number of Christians killed in Nigeria could rise significantly in 2026 if security conditions do not improve.
On 31 December 2025, Release International said escalating anti-Christian violence by jihadist groups, limited state protection, and the potential expansion of militant activity from the Sahel region could lead to a sharp increase in killings. The organisation cited information from partners operating in Nigeria, particularly in the north and the Middle Belt.
Nigeria has, for several years, recorded some of the highest numbers of killings linked to anti-Christian violence worldwide. The International Society for Civil Liberties and Rule of Law (Intersociety) reported that more than 7,000 Christians were killed in the first 220 days of 2025, covering the period from January to August. The group estimated an average of 30 to 35 deaths per day during that period and reported thousands of additional abductions.
Separately, the Open Doors World Watch List 2025 recorded 3,100 Christian deaths linked to anti-Christian violence during the reporting period from October 2023 to September 2024. While this figure represented a slight decline compared with earlier years, it remained the highest number recorded for any country.
Most reported attacks have been attributed to Islamist militant groups, including Boko Haram, Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP), and armed factions described by advocacy groups as radicalised Fulani militants. These groups have carried out raids on villages, attacks on churches, kidnappings, and mass killings, primarily in northern states and parts of central Nigeria.
Release International said its projection for 2026 is based on several factors, including the continued presence and territorial expansion of jihadist groups, what it described as inadequate security responses by Nigerian authorities, and the risk of increased cross-border movement by militants operating in Mali, Burkina Faso, and other parts of the Sahel.
The organisation said that without changes in security policy and international engagement, fatalities linked to anti-Christian violence could rise further in the coming year.
Independent conflict monitoring organisations, including the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), report that jihadist violence in Nigeria has affected both Christian and Muslim civilians. ACLED data indicate that tens of thousands of civilians of all religious backgrounds have been killed since the insurgency began in 2009, with anti-Christian attacks constituting a significant share of civilian fatalities in certain regions.
International concern over the situation has increased. The United States has redesignated Nigeria as a Country of Particular Concern for religious freedom, and Nigerian and allied forces have continued military operations against Islamic State-linked groups in recent months.
Human rights organisations continue to call for improved civilian protection, stronger accountability for perpetrators, and measures to address the underlying drivers of anti-Christian violence, including insecurity, weak governance, and intercommunal tensions.
